🔗 Share this article

In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán was notable as the only head of an EU nation to endorse Donald Trump. This support came as no shock, considering the Hungarian leader's championing of controversial theories like the "great replacement" theory and his suppression of media freedom. Observers observe that Hungary's premier more or less wrote the playbook for Trump's base, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors Before Hungarian Elections

Recently, amid key votes in Hungary just six months away, the US president offered electoral assistance. With Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a nation he describes as an illiberal state, his Fidesz party is behind in opinion polls. An official trip to the US capital resulted in not just Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought far more significant campaign boosts.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Despite before admonishing EU countries on the need to halt all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against states persisting to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump agreed to allow a particular exclusion for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the American leadership also agreed to offer a “financial shield” to the Hungarian authorities if it faces any future difficulties, given that EU institutions persists in holding back large sums from the EU to the nation due to rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this deal seem vague. Yet Mr Trump has shown his inclination to support like-minded partners after the America granted a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. Although Orbán failed to obtain a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the discussions nevertheless was a productive session.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions will have highlighted the international consequences of the coming election, before which the opposition candidate, Magyar, has a clear edge in surveys. Heads of state know not to look for principled consistency from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the American leader's attempts to undermine the bloc. But the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to phase out imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian petroleum, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided more than ten billion pounds to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, Hungary has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums remains a significant obstacle.

Opposition Stance

Péter Magyar has avoided vowing a major policy shift on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on home affairs, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to finally behave as a constructive EU member. Following repeated disruptions, Brussels can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, including the support for minority protections and the autonomy of civic groups, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His persistent opposition toward Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its long-term safety.